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Premier League

00 · Overview

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02 · Match

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Premier League

Aston Villa v Arsenal

These figures may be out of date. Last updated 1:19 AM EDT

Scoreline

AVL

Aston Villa

AVL

0–1

FT

Mon, Aug 31, 3:00 PM EDT

ARS

Arsenal

ARS

Half time 0–0

Match record

2

Matchday

Played

Result status

Premier League

Competition

Projection

Prediction algorithm

Arsenal to win

36% most likely

1–1
Likely score: 1.25–1.29
Expected goals

AVL 34%
Draw 30%
ARS 36%

53%
Both teams score: 47%
Over 2.5 goals: 28%
AVL clean sheet: 29%
ARS clean sheet

Why

The away side has the tighter defensive record.
Expected goals: 1.25 for the home side, 1.29 for the away side.

Events and statistics

Not tracked

Goal events, lineups, and shot statistics are outside what PitchIQ records. They are left out rather than estimated.

Home and away scoring rates are estimated separately from results.

Low-scoring draws are corrected upward, which independent Poisson under-counts.

What this does not know

Injuries, suspensions, lineups, and in-play events are not accounted for.
Thin samples are pulled toward the league average until more is played.

How this prediction is calculated

Aston Villa v Arsenal · PitchIQ