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Premier League

00 · Overview

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02 · Match

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Premier League

Aston Villa v Nottingham

These figures may be out of date. Last updated 1:16 AM EDT

Scoreline

AVL

Aston Villa

AVL

1–2

FT

Sat, Sep 12, 10:00 AM EDT

NOT

Nottingham

NOT

Half time 0–0

Match record

4

Matchday

Played

Result status

Premier League

Competition

Projection

Prediction algorithm

Aston Villa to win

38% most likely

1–1
Likely score: 1.52–1.43
Expected goals

AVL 38%
Draw 27%
NOT 34%

61%
Both teams score: 57%
Over 2.5 goals: 24%
AVL clean sheet: 22%
NOT clean sheet

Why

Expected goals: 1.52 for the home side, 1.43 for the away side.
Home and away scoring rates are estimated separately from results.

Events and statistics

Not tracked

Goal events, lineups, and shot statistics are outside what PitchIQ records. They are left out rather than estimated.

Aston Villa v Nottingham · PitchIQ

Low-scoring draws are corrected upward, which independent Poisson under-counts.

What this does not know

Injuries, suspensions, lineups, and in-play events are not accounted for.
Thin samples are pulled toward the league average until more is played.

How this prediction is calculated