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02 · Match

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Brentford v Chelsea · PitchIQ

Premier League

Brentford v Chelsea

These figures may be out of date. Last updated 1:19 AM EDT

Scoreline

BRE

Brentford

BRE

3–0

FT

Fri, Sep 18, 3:00 PM EDT

CHE

Chelsea

CHE

Half time 0–0

Match record

5

Matchday

Played

Result status

Premier League

Competition

Projection

Prediction algorithm

Brentford to win

48% most likely

1–1
Likely score: 1.72–1.20
Expected goals

BRE 48%
Draw 27%
CHE 25%

59%
Both teams score: 56%
Over 2.5 goals: 30%
BRE clean sheet: 18%
CHE clean sheet

Why

Expected goals: 1.72 for the home side, 1.20 for the away side.
Home and away scoring rates are estimated separately from results.

Events and statistics

Not tracked

Goal events, lineups, and shot statistics are outside what PitchIQ records. They are left out rather than estimated.

Low-scoring draws are corrected upward, which independent Poisson under-counts.

What this does not know

Injuries, suspensions, lineups, and in-play events are not accounted for.
Thin samples are pulled toward the league average until more is played.

How this prediction is calculated