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02 · Match

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Tottenham v Aston Villa · PitchIQ

Premier League

Tottenham v Aston Villa

These figures may be out of date. Last updated 1:17 AM EDT

Scoreline

TOT

Tottenham

TOT

2–3

FT

Sat, Sep 19, 7:30 AM EDT

AVL

Aston Villa

AVL

Half time 0–1

Match record

5

Matchday

Played

Result status

Premier League

Competition

Projection

Prediction algorithm

Tottenham to win

40% most likely

1–1
Likely score: 1.47–1.27
Expected goals

TOT 40%
Draw 29%
AVL 31%

57%
Both teams score: 52%
Over 2.5 goals: 28%
TOT clean sheet: 23%
AVL clean sheet

Why

Expected goals: 1.47 for the home side, 1.27 for the away side.
Home and away scoring rates are estimated separately from results.

Events and statistics

Not tracked

Goal events, lineups, and shot statistics are outside what PitchIQ records. They are left out rather than estimated.

Low-scoring draws are corrected upward, which independent Poisson under-counts.

What this does not know

Injuries, suspensions, lineups, and in-play events are not accounted for.
Thin samples are pulled toward the league average until more is played.

How this prediction is calculated