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Premier League

00 · Overview

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02 · Match

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Premier League

Aston Villa v Brentford

These figures may be out of date. Last updated 1:16 AM EDT

Scoreline

AVL

Aston Villa

AVL

2–2

FT

Sat, Oct 10, 10:00 AM EDT

BRE

Brentford

BRE

Half time 1–1

Match record

6

Matchday

Played

Result status

Premier League

Competition

Projection

Prediction algorithm

Aston Villa to win

37% most likely

1–1
Likely score: 1.50–1.49
Expected goals

AVL 37%
Draw 27%
BRE 36%

62%
Both teams score: 57%
Over 2.5 goals: 23%
AVL clean sheet: 22%
BRE clean sheet

Why

The away side scores 13% more often than the home side, relative to the league.
Expected goals: 1.50 for the home side, 1.49 for the away side.

Events and statistics

Not tracked

Goal events, lineups, and shot statistics are outside what PitchIQ records. They are left out rather than estimated.

Aston Villa v Brentford · PitchIQ

Home and away scoring rates are estimated separately from results.

Low-scoring draws are corrected upward, which independent Poisson under-counts.

What this does not know

Injuries, suspensions, lineups, and in-play events are not accounted for.
Thin samples are pulled toward the league average until more is played.

How this prediction is calculated