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02 · Match

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Crystal Palace v Nottingham · PitchIQ

Premier League

Crystal Palace v Nottingham

Updated 1:16 AM EDT

Scoreline

CRY

Crystal Palace

CRY

3–1

FT

Sun, Oct 11, 9:00 AM EDT

NOT

Nottingham

NOT

Half time 2–1

Match record

6

Matchday

Played

Result status

Premier League

Competition

Projection

Prediction algorithm

Crystal Palace to win

40% most likely

1–1
Likely score: 1.77–1.63
Expected goals

CRY 40%
Draw 25%
NOT 35%

68%
Both teams score: 66%
Over 2.5 goals: 20%
CRY clean sheet: 17%
NOT clean sheet

Why

The away side has the tighter defensive record.
Expected goals: 1.77 for the home side, 1.63 for the away side.

Events and statistics

Not tracked

Goal events, lineups, and shot statistics are outside what PitchIQ records. They are left out rather than estimated.

Home and away scoring rates are estimated separately from results.

Low-scoring draws are corrected upward, which independent Poisson under-counts.

What this does not know

Injuries, suspensions, lineups, and in-play events are not accounted for.
Thin samples are pulled toward the league average until more is played.

How this prediction is calculated