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Premier League

00 · Overview

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02 · Match

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Premier League

Brighton Hove v Aston Villa

These figures may be out of date. Last updated 1:16 AM EDT

Scoreline

BHA

Brighton Hove

BHA

4–0

FT

Sun, Aug 23, 9:00 AM EDT

AVL

Aston Villa

AVL

Half time 4–0

Match record

1

Matchday

Played

Result status

Premier League

Competition

Projection

Prediction algorithm

Brighton Hove to win

61% most likely

1–1
Likely score: 2.02–0.93
Expected goals

BHA 61%
Draw 23%
AVL 15%

54%
Both teams score: 57%
Over 2.5 goals: 40%
BHA clean sheet: 13%
AVL clean sheet

Why

The home side scores 40% more often than the away side, relative to the league.
The home side has the tighter defensive record.

Events and statistics

Not tracked

Goal events, lineups, and shot statistics are outside what PitchIQ records. They are left out rather than estimated.

Brighton Hove v Aston Villa · PitchIQ

Expected goals: 2.02 for the home side, 0.93 for the away side.

Home and away scoring rates are estimated separately from results.

Low-scoring draws are corrected upward, which independent Poisson under-counts.

What this does not know

Injuries, suspensions, lineups, and in-play events are not accounted for.
Thin samples are pulled toward the league average until more is played.

How this prediction is calculated